Thursday, May 17, 2007

S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0

Futures trade has improved slightly since the last update, but only enough to now signal a mixed start for the cash market. Initial claims, which were compiled during the same week as the crucial monthly payrolls report, unexpectedly fell 5K to 293K (consensus 310K). That's the lowest level since mid January and lends further proof that labor conditions remain healthy but also removes some of the optimism toward a Fed easing anytime soon. Bonds have weakened as the yield on the 10-year note (-6/32) has risen to 4.73% from 4.71% prior to the report.

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