Thursday, June 28, 2007

S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5.

As expected, Q1 GDP was revised slightly higher, but barely. The final read checked in at 0.7% (consensus 0.8%), up from a preliminary read of 0.6%. The chain deflator, a key inflation measure, unexpectedly rose to 4.2% (consensus 4.0%) from 4.0%. Initial claims fell 13K to 313K (consensus 315K). The response in stocks so far has been relatively muted given the Q1 GDP report's predictability; however, futures were trending higher ahead of the data as investors revisit the idea that policy makers will exclude the word "elevated" as it relates to inflation in today's closely-watched Fed statement. Bonds have also barely budged on the news; the 10-year note remains unchanged yielding 5.08%.

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